Future Costs of Aged Care

University of Queensland estimates for the Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety suggest that bringing all aged care homes to the quality standard of the best 5% would only increase Commonwealth costs by about 4%.  This is much lower than estimates by the University of Wollongong for the Commission. 

We have estimated that clearing the present home care waiting lists might increase aged care costs by about 14%.  About 5% increases in Commonwealth funding may be needed to allow providers a reasonable return on equity, but this might be offset by savings from controlled financial reporting. 

Overall, we estimate that Commonwealth funding might need to increase by between 14% and 35% to provide the quality of care expected by the community, clear home waiting lists and resolve financial issues.

If recent real funding growth per recipient continues, aged care may become a much larger part of Commonwealth outlays.