Modelling COVID-19

We are modelling the potential spread of COVID-19 to vulnerable persons, such as those in aged care, schools, hospitals and prisons. Our projections assume that preventive measures maintain the active cases broadly near current levels. They show the potential for asymptomatic persons to infect others at increasing remote locations.

Our projections start with a baseline population of 25 million persons, spread over the 2288 SA2 statistical divisions in Australia. We model the journeys to work of employed persons, sometimes over long distances. We include the location and size of each potential high-risk site, such as aged care homes.